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Cathie Marsh Institute for Social Research

Population Estimating and Forecasting

Dates: 15 June 2016
Time: 10am - 4:30pm
Instructor: Paul Norman
Level: Introductory
Fee: £195 (£140 for those from educational and charitable institutions). The Cathie Marsh Institute (CMIST) offers five free places to research staff and students within the Faculty of Humanities at The University of Manchester and the North West Doctoral Training Centre.

Postgraduate students requesting a free place will be required to provide a letter of support from their supervisor.


This course is aimed at those with a working knowledge of demography but who have a need to expand this into the use of estimation and forecasting.

The morning sessions will focus on relatively simple methods of estimating subnational populations. We then move onto more complex cohort-component methods.

In the afternoon we learn how to forecast future populations and experiment with varying our assumptions about future demographic trends.

Please note that a portfolio of demographic-related course is offered at CMIST over a five-day period. As noted below, participants are assumed here to have prior knowledge of Demographic Concepts and Methods, but if not, they may be interested in taking this course on days 1 and 2.

This standalone course on Population Estimating and Forecasting takes place on day 3 and acts as a foundation course for those with no experience of this topic who may be taking the course on using the ‘POPGROUP’ software which take place on days 4 and 5.

This course is designed for current and potential users of demographic data who may be wanting to learn estimating and forecasting. Participants wishing to get skilled up in this topic area might be postgraduate or other established academics or be from local/national government, health service, emergency services or business backgrounds.


  • To provide a grounding in the principles underlying estimating and forecasting
  • To provide practical experience of carrying out calculations

So that, by the end of the course, participants will:

  • Have an awareness of appropriate data sources
  • Be able to apply appropriate techniques to produce population estimates and forecasts for use in a range of research & policy situations
  • Be well-resourced in terms of both methods and skills


It is assumed that participants will have prior knowledge of the content of the Demographic Concepts and Methods course.
Experience of Microsoft Excel is essential.

Recommended reading

Rowland D (2003) Demographic Methods and Concepts. Oxford University Press: Oxford

About the instructor

  • Paul Norman